Bitcoin's $40,000 Breakthrough: Is It Imminent? Insights from Renowned Analyst PlanB

Intriguing predictions from expert PlanB suggest a bullish future for Bitcoin, potentially surpassing $40,000 soon.

Delve into an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's current trends, the significance of its Realized Price, and expert views on its short-term fluctuations and long-term prospects.

Enjoying Bitcoin Below $40,000, Says Analyst PlanB

Despite some predictions of a short-term decline in Bitcoin (BTC) price, PlanB, a prominent analyst known for his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model-based forecasts, suggests that the period of BTC being below $40,000 will not last long.

As of this month, Bitcoin's price rose to around $38,000 on the 10th and has since been fluctuating, briefly surpassing $38,000 today, the 25th, before falling back into the $37,000 range.

Given these developments, some predict a short-term decline in Bitcoin's value, but PlanB advises enjoying the current period while BTC is trading under $40,000.

Imminent Arrival of a Strong Bull Market?

The image posted by PlanB this time overlays Bitcoin's spot price with its Realized Price(*1).

(*1)Realized Price: This represents the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin. It's calculated by dividing the realized market capitalization (total value based on acquisition prices at the last transaction, not current market prices) by the current circulating supply. Unlike market prices, it gives an average acquisition cost unaffected by derivatives and shows the price at the last physical transaction.

The Realized Price can be used to gauge trend reversals in Bitcoin. The chart posted illustrates that a bull market begins when BTC's price exceeds the Realized Price, and a bear market starts when it falls below.

Currently, Bitcoin's price has surpassed its Realized Price of the last two years and five months, suggesting a strong bull market could soon begin for Bitcoin.

Considering the Potential for Short-Term Price Declines

In response to this post, a question arose: "Do market makers plan to create one last opportunity to buy BTC cheap?" PlanB replied, "Sorry, but I'm not part of the game seeking small profits in high-risk conditions."

Although the current situation, where Bitcoin struggles to maintain above $38,000, hints at a possible short-term decline, PlanB seems unconcerned about such minor fluctuations.

Furthermore, PlanB added, "I expect the average BTC price to be between $100,000 and $1 million during the 2024–2028 halving cycle."

Other predictions for an upcoming rise in Bitcoin's price have been made, with the cryptocurrency service company 'Matrixport' stating on the 23rd of this month, "There's a 90% chance that BTC will exceed $40,000 by December 2023."