Is the Bitcoin "Bubble Burst" Near? Veteran trader who predicted the crash warns

Peter Brandt, who predicted Bitcoin's 2018 crash, now warns of a potential fall to $30,000, citing data on diminishing bullish cycles and exponential decay.

Discover the full details and implications of his latest.

Veteran Trader Peter Brandt Predicts Possible Bitcoin Crash to $30,000

Despite numerous forecasts predicting Bitcoin (BTC) prices to exceed $100,000, Peter Brandt, a trader known for accurately forecasting the 2018 Bitcoin crash, warns in a blog post published on April 26, 2024, of a potential crash to around $30,000.

Brandt, a veteran trader and analyst with over 40 years of experience and more than 720,000 followers on platform X, is renowned for his realistic and accurate price forecasts and market analysis.

Brandt is not solely a critic of Bitcoin; in the past, he has valued it as a "store of value" and even predicted that it could rise to $200,000 by September 2025.

In the introduction to his article, Brandt states, "I hate being the bearer of bad news, but data are data," and proceeds to explain the current state of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Losing Momentum

Factually, the bullish market cycles of Bitcoin have been losing momentum over the years. Regardless of whether one likes this data or not, BTC investors need to consider and adjust accordingly.

Brandt himself has allocated his largest investment position in Bitcoin and is not pleased with the current data, emphasizing the need to deal with it properly.

To date, Bitcoin has experienced four bullish cycles, with the current price rise representing the fifth. However, when comparing the rate of price increase, it is evident that the momentum is waning.

The Threat of Exponential Decay

The phenomenon affecting Bitcoin's movement is known as exponential decay, currently displaying an ugly reality.

• The size of the cycle from 2011 to 2013 was about 20% of the cycle from 2009 to 2011.
• The size of the cycle from 2015 to 2017 was about 20% of the cycle from 2011 to 2013.
• The size of the cycle from 2018 to 2021 was about 20% of the cycle from 2015 to 2017.

Applying this trend to the current Bitcoin cycle, the expected price increase rate would be approximately 4.5 times, about 20% of the 22 times increase recorded from 2018 to 2021.

Has Bitcoin Already Reached Its Peak?

With the current bullish cycle's low at $15,473, the high is projected to be $72,723. However, this price was already reached in March 2024.

Many may question the impact of the "halving," and while price increases following halvings have occurred before, it is now essential to address the reality of "exponential decay."

Brandt personally believes there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already recorded its peak in this bullish cycle.

Could Bitcoin Prices Fall to the $30,000 Range?

If Bitcoin has peaked, what happens next is unclear to Brandt as well. However, he predicts that if Bitcoin has reached its peak, its price could fall to the $30,000 range or even to the lows of 2021.

From a classical chart analysis perspective, such a drop could be interpreted as a very bullish long-term trend. For comparison, one might look at the gold price chart from August 2020 to March 2024.

BTC Prices Stagnate in the $60,000 Range

While reports suggest that the introduction of a physical Bitcoin ETF and the arrival of the fourth halving, along with significant investments at corporate and national levels, should lead to substantial price increases, the BTC price remains around $62,000 as of the article's writing.

Despite many predicting significant price increases, Brandt's proven track record and observation of diminishing momentum in BTC price increases highlight the importance of considering the possibility of a significant drop.

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