Unusual Stability in the Bitcoin Market: Causes of Stagnation and Movements of Large Investors According to PlanB

For nearly eight months, Bitcoin has been stuck in an unusual flat trading pattern, leading to widespread speculation.

Renowned analyst PlanB, known for his Stock-to-Flow model, believes large investors may be awaiting the U.S. presidential election outcome before making big moves.

Is this extended stagnation truly a result of market manipulation, or are broader economic forces at play?

This article delves into the key factors, including the impact of spot ETFs and the potential influence of the upcoming U.S. election, on Bitcoin's peculiar price movements.

Insights on the Stagnant Cryptocurrency Market

In a YouTube video published on October 3, 2024, renowned analyst PlanB, famous for his Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions, shared his views on the ongoing stagnation in the cryptocurrency market.

He suggested that large investors, often referred to as "whales," might be waiting for the results of the U.S. presidential election, scheduled for November 5, 2024, before making significant moves.

PlanB is well-known for his use of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model in predicting Bitcoin prices, and at the time of writing, his X (formerly Twitter) account boasts over 1.99 million followers.

Since around March 2024, the cryptocurrency market has been in a prolonged state of stagnation for nearly eight months. In his latest video, PlanB elaborates on his thoughts regarding the current price movements in the market.

Unprecedented Sideways Movement in a Bull Market

PlanB stated that, according to the price prediction model he frequently employs, Bitcoin is currently in a bull market. However, he also pointed out that "this particular bull market is extremely unusual."

He noted, "Bitcoin has been in a flat state for eight months, something that has never happened before." PlanB contrasted this to previous bull markets in 2011, 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2021, where the price typically surged during these phases. The ongoing stagnation is therefore a significant departure from historical trends.

While some speculate that market manipulation might be the cause of the prolonged price stagnation, PlanB dismisses this idea.

"Even if there were market manipulation, it is highly unlikely for prices to remain flat for eight months. There must be other factors at play," he stated.

The Possibility of Premature Price Rises Due to Spot ETFs

Several possibilities have been proposed to explain why Bitcoin has remained flat for such an extended period, one of which is the "potential impact of spot ETFs leading to premature price increases ahead of the halving."

PlanB explained that "it is unprecedented for Bitcoin to reach an all-time high before a halving event, but this time, prices surged to $73,000 before the halving." Usually, the accumulation phase sees stable price increases, so such rapid growth is rare, according to him.

He further suggested that this premature price surge before the halving could be one of the factors contributing to the long-term adjustment.

"Had the price gradually risen to $63,000, the perception would have been entirely different," he commented. "Although the sudden surge caused by ETFs followed by eight months of flat prices feels strange, we ended up at the same price point."

Bitcoin's Moving Averages Signal Stability

PlanB also highlighted a chart displaying Bitcoin’s moving averages, explaining that the colors indicate the number of months remaining until the next halving event.

He reassured viewers that "the current moving average is around $40,000, and despite eight months of stagnation, Bitcoin has remained above the 200-week moving average."

As long as the moving average continues to rise, "Bitcoin will be fine and will eventually find its next trigger for upward movement."

Among the potential triggers for Bitcoin’s price rise, he mentioned factors such as the "premature rise triggered by spot ETFs, the halving, monetary easing, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases, and Elon Musk’s favorable stance on Bitcoin."

Are Whales Waiting for the U.S. Presidential Election?

Another possible reason for the prolonged sideways movement in Bitcoin’s price is that "whales may be waiting for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024."

PlanB suggested that "if the Democratic Party wins in November, it could be bad news for Bitcoin, which might be why whales are waiting for the election results. This could be the reason for the eight-month stagnation."

He added that "it makes sense to wait for the U.S. presidential election results" and questioned, "Why take risks when the results will be known in just two or three weeks?"

While several factors have been proposed to explain the prolonged stagnation in the Bitcoin market, PlanB emphasized that the most plausible explanation is that many large investors are awaiting the results of the U.S. presidential election before making moves.

Eyes on the U.S. Presidential Election in November 2024

The impact of the U.S. presidential election on cryptocurrency prices is a subject of debate among experts. Some suggest that "if Trump wins, prices will rise, but if Harris wins, they will fall." Others argue that "Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs regardless of who wins."

However, the prevailing opinion is that "a Trump victory would be more favorable for cryptocurrencies," with many in the crypto industry voicing support for him.

In any case, the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, is expected to have a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices, and all eyes are on the upcoming results.

You can watch PlanB’s latest insights on this topic in the following YouTube video.

>> Click here for the latest articles related to price forecasts